A high-fidelity first-order reliability analysis for shear deformable laminated composite plates

This paper presents the complete theoretical development and practical implementation of a first-order reliability analysis for shear deformable laminated composite plates. The choice of plate theory is initially presented as it is important to ensure that a formulation capable of representing realistic physics is used as the basis of the overall simulation tool to reduce epistemic uncertainty as far as possible. The first-order reliability method (FORM) is proposed for the reliability analysis and summarised in the paper, with comparisons made throughout the paper with Monte Carlo simulation. The sensitivities required as part of the FORM algorithm are presented and verified against finite difference approximations. The practical implementation of the computational framework is demonstrated by numerical examples in which the probability failure of plates is calculated with performance criteria based on deflection and stress and uncertainties associated with fibre orientation and ply thickness.