Prediction of concrete creep and shrinkage: past, present and future

The first part of the paper summarizes various aspects of the prediction of concrete creep and shrinkage to be discussed in the conference lecture. They include the theories of physical mechanism, prediction models, constitutive equations, computational approaches, probabilistic aspects, and research directions. The second part then presents two new prediction models. One of them deals with the approximate prediction formulae for pore relative humidity distributions, required for realistic creep and shrinkage analysis, and the other deals with the extrapolation of short time measurements of creep and shrinkage into long times.