Uncertainty modelling and sensitivity analysis of tunnel face stability

This paper proposes an approach to the choice and evaluation of engineering models with the aid of a typical application in geotechnics. An important issue in the construction of shallow tunnels, especially in weak ground conditions, is the tunnel face stability. Various theoretical and numerical models for predicting the necessary support pressure have been put forth in the literature. In this paper, we combine laboratory experiments performed at the University of Innsbruck with current methods of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for assessing adequacy, predictive power and robustness of the models. The major issues are the handling of the twofold uncertainty of test results and of model predictions as well as the decision about what are the influential input parameters.