Prediction error identification of linear systems: A nonparametric Gaussian regression approach

A novel Bayesian paradigm for the identification of output error models has recently been proposed in which, in place of postulating finite-dimensional models of the system transfer function, the system impulse response is searched for within an infinite-dimensional space. In this paper, such a nonparametric approach is applied to the design of optimal predictors and discrete-time models based on prediction error minimization by interpreting the predictor impulse responses as realizations of Gaussian processes. The proposed scheme describes the predictor impulse responses as the convolution of an infinite-dimensional response with a low-dimensional parametric response that captures possible high-frequency dynamics. Overparameterization is avoided because the model involves only a few hyperparameters that are tuned via marginal likelihood maximization. Numerical experiments, with data generated by ARMAX and infinite-dimensional models, show the definite advantages of the new approach over standard parametric prediction error techniques and subspace methods both in terms of predictive capability on new data and accuracy in reconstruction of system impulse responses.