A comparison of microbial dose–response models fitted to human data

A study of eight mathematical dose–response models for microbial risk assessment was conducted using infectivity and illness data on a variety of microbial pathogens from published studies with human volunteers. The purpose was to evaluate variability among the models for human microbial dose–response data in order to determine whether two-parameter models might suffice for most microbial dose–response data or whether three-parameter models should generally be fitted. Model variability was measured in terms of estimated ED01s and ED10s, with the view that these effective dose levels correspond to the lower and upper limits of the 1–10% risk range generally recommended for establishing benchmark doses in risk assessment. An investigation of the ranks of the ED01 and ED10 values among the models led to the conclusion that the two-parameter models captured at least as much uncertainty as the three-parameter models for the data examined. A further evaluation of the two-parameter models did not result in the selection of one “best” model, but it did provide some insights into the models’ relative behavior. The model uncertainty analysis proposed by Kang et al. [Regulat. Toxicol. Pharmacol. 32 (2000) 68] using four two-parameter models was reinforced.