Post-mortem modelling of pH and temperature in related lamb carcases

Exponential decay models have been used to model pH and temperature decline in lamb carcases post mortem. Such models, once fitted to carcase data, can then be used to predict a carcaseʹs pH at a temperature of 18 °C and its temperature when the pH equals 6. Unfortunately, these models frequently fail when fitted to limited pH/temperature data, because of either insufficient data or inappropriateness of the exponential decay model. To overcome these problems an alternative though similar modelling approach is proposed. This alternative approach replaces the exponential decay model with a more flexible spline modelling approach for the average trend and includes in the model, as random effects, individual deviations from average trend. Including the individual deviations from average trend as random effects in the model allows information on individual carcases to be shared across carcases.