Title of article :
A dynamic population model for estimating all-cause mortality due to lifetime exposure history
Author/Authors :
Bachand، نويسنده , , Annette M. and Sulsky، نويسنده , , Sandra I.، نويسنده ,
Issue Information :
روزنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2013
Pages :
6
From page :
246
To page :
251
Abstract :
We developed a comprehensive, flexible dynamic model that estimates all-cause mortality for a hypothetical cohort. All model input is user-specified. In the base case, members of the cohort may be exposed to a high risk product as they age. The counterfactual scenario includes exposure to both a high risk and a lower risk product. The model sorts the population into age and exposure categories, and applies the appropriate mortality rates to each category. The model tracks individual exposure histories, and estimates, at the end of each modeled age category, the number of survivors in the two exposure scenarios (base case and counterfactual), and the difference between them. Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the variability of the results. Model output was compared against US and Swedish life tables using population-specific tobacco exposure transition probabilities derived from the literature, and it produced similar survival estimates.
Keywords :
Harm reduction , unintended consequences , Policy , Population simulation
Journal title :
Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology
Serial Year :
2013
Journal title :
Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology
Record number :
1491878
Link To Document :
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