Planning for rural energy system: part III

The paper presents a technique for forecasting future scenarios. The forecast is based on a set of projected inputs for the target year along with a projected set of technical coefficients. The projected inputs and the technical coefficients are arrived at either through a regression of historical data or based on socio-economic conditions of the study area as brought out by State or District level statistical data or through a primary survey. For some variables, the best farm method was also employed for projections. The application of the method is illustrated by projecting a plausible scenario for the rural segment of Kanyakumari District for the year 1995. This paper also presents the application of scenario approach to micro level planning via impact analysis of various control parameters. The advantage of scenario analysis for micro level planning is discussed and scenarios for analyzing the impact of (1) replacing field crop by plantation crop, (2) introducing energy plantation, (3) introducing fuel efficient stoves, (4) increasing fertilizer price, (5) increased fertilizer application, (6) increased population growth, (7) drought conditions, (8) decreased fuelwood availability, have been developed and discussed for arriving at plausible recommendations for energy resource generation and optimum usage of available energy resources in a given rural system under various conditions.