A pilot study of the wind speed along the Rome–Naples HS/HC railway line.: Part 2—Probabilistic analyses and methodology assessment

The safety of railway operations under wind actions has recently become a topical matter due to the development of high-speed trains, which are very sensitive to crosswind conditions. For this reason, RFI (the Italian railway network) has entrusted the University of Genoa with a study of the wind hazard of the Rome–Naples High Speed (HS)/High Capacity (HC) railway line. A consistent part of such a study is focused on the probabilistic analysis of the wind speed and direction along that railway line, with the aim of developing a general procedure that can be applied to any railway line. This paper represents the logical prosecution of a companion paper where numerical simulations have been carried out of the wind fields along the line. These results are used together with a large amount of data measured by neighbouring meteorological stations in order to establish a probabilistic model of the wind speed and direction along the line. Such model provides a full representation of the wind climate and hazard of the railway line, and represents the basic step towards the development of a full risk analysis. Preliminary evaluations are also reported in order to assess the robustness and reliability of the methodology applied and the results obtained.