Prospective scenarios for the biodiesel chain of a Brazilian state

This paper presents a study based on the Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning (STSP) method, focusing the biodiesel production chain of Rio Grande do Sul State. The aim of the study was to identify key elements to comprehend the systemic structure of interaction among the ties of this chain. The study was held by a team of specialists over five months, including 15 meetings. Discussions were based on quantitative and qualitative data and a systemic map was constructed and refined. Based on this modeling, four different prospective scenarios were comparatively analyzed in order to propose strategic actions to promote the sustainability and competitiveness of the chain. The results were then presented to two different groups of external specialists in order to validate the conclusions drawn and the proposals. Both groups agreed with the ideas presented. The paper is constructed as follows: a brief introduction focusing on contextual elements of the biodiesel production in Brazil and in Rio Grande do Sul; some background material regarding agroindustrial production chains and an overview of the biodiesel production chain of interest; a description of the method used to perform the research; main results and discussion; and conclusions. With this paper the authors also hope to contribute to the discussion regarding competitiveness and sustainability of biofuel chains in Brazil.