Learning in dedicated wood production systems: Past trends, future outlook and implications for bioenergy

This paper assesses the learning potential of dedicated wood production systems to boost yields and reduce production costs. In particular, the paper analyses past trends and provides a future outlook of developments in dedicated wood production for three cases: eucalyptus production in Brazil, poplar production in Italy and willow production in Sweden. A main objective of this paper is to evaluate the extent to which experience curves can be devised for conventional woody plantation systems, and whether these can also be applied to short rotation cropping (SRC) production systems. For current average SRC production systems, Italian poplar shows the highest cost at 5.5 € GJ−1 followed by Swedish willow at 4.4 € GJ−1 and Brazilian eucalyptus is produced to the lowest costs at 2.8 € GJ−1. It was assessed to what extent production costs can be reduced per step in the production cycle and how this affects the minimum cost levels that can ultimately be achieved. Ultimate cost reduction could lead to delivered costs of 2.2 € GJ−1 for poplar, 1.9 € GJ−1 for willow and 1.9 € GJ−1 for eucalyptus on better quality lands. Based on historic cost data and production trends, experience curves were applied providing progress ratios for poplar in Italy and eucalyptus in Brazil. Brazilian eucalyptus production follows a steeper slope (63–73%) than poplar in Italy (71–78%). The extent to, and rate at, which cost reductions can occur within the next 20 years were evaluated by combining current costs, minimum cost levels and progress ratios with ranges in European and global biomass demand projections. This shows that, at the assumed growth rates for biomass production in Europe and for global production, minimum cost levels can be reached within the next two decades for all cases.