Uncertainty Calculations for Theoretical Flight Power Curves

The comparison of theoretical and experimental estimates of the mechanical power requirement for flight is currently impossible owing to the absence of complete experimental data based on mechanical power, as opposed to measurements of metabolic rates. Nevertheless, comparisons of measured and predicted characteristic speeds, and inferred power curves are frequently made, despite the total absence of uncertainty estimates of the theoretically predicted quantities. Here the method for correct calculation of uncertainty estimates in mechanical power models is outlined in detail, and analytical and numerical results are derived for realistic examples. The sensitivity of the calculated variations in power requirement varies greatly among the independent variables, and the practical and theoretical consequences of this variation are discussed. Pending the arrival of appropriate experimental measurements, it is now possible, in principle, to make quantitative comparisons with theoretical predictions.