Title of article :
Fuzzy formulation of the Lee–Carter model for mortality forecasting
Author/Authors :
Koissi، نويسنده , , Marie-Claire and Shapiro، نويسنده , , Arnold F.، نويسنده ,
Issue Information :
روزنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2006
Pages :
23
From page :
287
To page :
309
Abstract :
In this paper, a fuzzy formulation of the Lee–Carter [Lee, R.D., Carter, L.R., 1992. Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 419 (87), 659–675] model is proposed. The standard Lee–Carter (LC) model, which uses singular value decomposition, assumes that the errors have a constant variance over all ages. This statement, however, does not often hold. The advantage of such a fuzzy approach is that the errors are viewed as fuzziness of the model structure; hence the homoscedasticity is not an issue.
Keywords :
Lee–Carter method , Stochastic model , Age-sex-specific mortality , uncertainty , Fuzzy modeling
Journal title :
Insurance Mathematics and Economics
Serial Year :
2006
Journal title :
Insurance Mathematics and Economics
Record number :
1543230
Link To Document :
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