De Finetti, Friedman, and the methodology of positive economics

Friedmanʹs philosophical view has been the object of several, sometimes contradictory, interpretations. Whatever the interpretation, a specific aspect of Friedmanʹs methodological and epistemological framework has been overlooked: Friedmanʹs adherence to the neo-Bayesian interpretation of probability and induction. This paper, by rectifying this oversight, claims that Friedmanʹs instrumentalism was a pioneering attempt to introduce a blend of positivism, pragmatism, and ‘radical probabilism’ into economic analysis. From this angle Friedmanʹs philosophical work emerges as a contribution to the debate over the ontological status of scientific entities and theories as well as to the methodology of economics.