Disease cases and their medical costs attributable to smoking: an analysis of the national medical expenditure survey

We estimate the fraction of disease cases, and the fraction of their total medical expenditures, attributable to smoking for two disease groups: (LC) lung and laryngeal cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, (CHD) cardiovascular disease, stroke and other smoking-caused cancers. We use a generalized additive model to predict the probability of disease; and a semi-parametric, two-part cost model to estimate the average difference in medical expenditures for persons with and without disease. We estimate that 53% and 13% of the medical expenditures for persons with LC or CHD are attributable to smoking.