How have college decisions changed over time? An application of the conditional logistic choice model

This paper examines how individuals from 1972, 1982, and 1992 chose whether and where to attend college by estimating the importance of postsecondary costs and quality. Using the conditional logistic choice model to exploit extensive match-specific information between individuals and colleges and include the thousands of alternatives available to prospective students, the paper is able to approximate an individualʹs college outlook as never before. The results suggest that although tuition price was an important determinant of attendance for the class of 1972, college costs do not explain differences in enrollment for the class of 1992. However, price is still found to be an important factor when individuals choose between colleges, particularly among low-income students. Additionally, college quality has become a more important factor in college decisions.