Short run and long run causality in time series: inference

We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (Econometrica 66, (1998) 1099–1125). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses considered are nonlinear, the proposed methods only require linear regression techniques as well as standard Gaussian asymptotic distributional theory. Bootstrap procedures are also considered. For the case of integrated processes, we propose extended regression methods that avoid nonstandard asymptotics. The methods are applied to a VAR model of the US economy.