Globalisation and local resistance: Alternative city developmental scenarios on capitalʹs global frontier—the case of Yalova, Turkey

Today, defining objectives and setting priorities at local level becomes more and more difficult as the nature and direction of urbanisation is increasingly influenced by global economic integration and the struggle of countries, and indeed, individual cities, to be competitive in the global marketplace (Cohen, 2004). In general, local strategies have to be formed and reformed, based on the logic of macro-level factors as to what is, or is not, feasible, and actors’ responses and political judgments about which values and interests they most wish to promote. this point of departure, and our need in the 21st century to focus on multi-faceted urban problems, the aim of this paper is to suggest ways in which scenario building and analysis can contribute to small to medium-sized city planning and governance in a globalising world. Based on a project conducted in the province of Yalova, Turkey, the paper presents four possible futures of the city of Yalova in 2020, as a decision support framework to assess and discuss Yalovaʹs alternative development trajectories from economic, social and environmental perspectives and in relation to their consequences for multiple constituencies, given their preferences, value-orientations and expectations. ʹs futures are conceived under four trajectories, based a set of structural assumptions associated with two key external uncertainties: globalisation, Europe and the future of social and environmental policies on the one hand, and Turkeyʹs relations with the EU, on the other. The first trajectory represents ‘Yalova within free markets’, in which Turkey is part of a Europe wherein US-style deregulation and privatisation prevail, with reduced social protection systems and environmental regulations. In the second trajectory, ‘Yalova within social Europe’, Turkey is part of a Europe wherein social and environmental concerns remain important. ‘Business as usual in Yalova’ is a trajectory wherein the EU cannot agree on a common stance regarding Turkeyʹs membership. In the fourth trajectory, ‘Inward-looking Yalova’, the EU rejects Turkey but offers special membership. The empirical study conducted in the province of Yalova is then used to explore the constituency interests, coalition formations and power relations and hence understand the potential role of local agency in shaping these four trajectories. l, this is an exercise of the exploration of possible outcome scenarios; a subjective yet systematic mind walk which fosters inquiry, creates awareness and spreads political responsibility, engagement and action at local level. Yalova scenarios 2020, with their socioeconomic and environmental implications and their consequences for different constituencies, provide a rich background against which to explore and formulate the paths that need to be taken within a multi-layered system of governance. Such an analysis give us the opportunity to see which alliances might be built to strengthen the forces that favour a more sustainable development path and the roles that different social actors may play in this process. The general research findings also shed light on the challenges facing Turkey for local governance. Of course, many of the challenges and uncertainties Turkey and Yalova face today are not unique. It is hoped that the Yalova scenarios and their subsequent analysis will be relevant to other regional and local authorities finding themselves increasingly under the influence of the external forces resident in the global economy, and considering new planning practices enabling multi-level and multi-actor governance arrangements.