Continental shorelines: climate change and integrated coastal management

Two continental shorelines, of Poland and Vietnam, are presented in the context of their vulnerability to climate change, present and planned response strategies and steps toward integrated coastal management (ICM). The two cases illustrate a broad realm of possible effects and actions facing continental shorelines. The climate change issue is primarily centered around sea level rise in Vietnam but has been expanded to other domains in Poland. General ICM issues are treated under the action plan Vietnam ICM 2000,1 and a central Vietnam coast at Hue is considered for its ICM potentials. GIS-aided techniques are employed in both countries to solve vulnerability problems and prepare for ICM. Sea-level rise scenarios, 10 cm (SLR1) and 30 cm (SLR2) by the year 2030, and 30 cm (ASLR1) and 100 cm (ASLR2) by the year 2100, are assumed as boundary conditions (along with some wind climate changes) for the entire Polish coast. Over 2200 km2 and 230 000 people are found vulnerable in Poland, and the total cost of land at loss due to ASLR2 is presently re-assessed at nearly US$30 billion (plus some US$18 billion at risk of flooding), while the cost of full protection reaches US$6 billion. Growing prices urge for prompt protection actions. Physical and socioeconomic development scenarios are examined and the coastal data input is provided for other Polish climate-change studies that are under way, thus adding to the cross-sectoral dimension. With 1-m sea-level rise in Vietnam, 17 million people will be subject to annual flooding, of which over 14 million are in the Mekong Delta provinces. About US$17 billion of capital value will be lost by annual flooding, which is about 80% of the yearly GDP. In the 30-year development scenario, the capital value lost will be close to US$270 billion, which would be even higher than the projected GDP at that time; the damage increases faster than the GDP. Major low-lying areas will be subject to increase in flooding: and, if no additional protection measures are taken, about 40 000 km2 will be flooded annually.