Comparing uncertain alternatives for a possible airport island location in the North Sea

This paper presents a methodology for making decisions based on uncertain information through the use of an analytical feasibility study of an airport island in the North Sea as an alternative to the present inland airport, Amsterdam Schiphol, in The Netherlands. The multidisciplinary project, called Flyland, quantified several conflicting aspects, including uncertainties, for each of five alternative locations for the new airport. The methodology combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Monte Carlo approaches and allows comparison of the alternatives on the basis of their morphological and ecological effects. The resulting scores rank the alternatives and quantify the distinctions between them by taking uncertainties into account. We found that with respect to morphology and ecology, it is most favourable to keep the Dutch national airport inland. The methodology can easily be extended to include other factors and reflect a wider range of multidisciplinary aspects (costs, accessibility, environmental aspects) of the airport island location.