A model-based method for estimating effective dispersal distance in tropical plant populations

Dispersal is a key mechanism to help populations propagate across space and thus is important in helping to understand spatial patterns. However, it is often difficult to quantify empirically as it requires intensive and detailed field study. Here we describe a method for estimating the effective dispersal distance of tropical plant populations. The method integrates a simple spatially explicit, individual-based dynamic model and spatial statistical analysis. The model is partly parameterized from spatial point pattern data as well as time series data from a 50 ha tropical forest plot in Barro Colorado Island (BCI) in Panama. Correlation between our estimated dispersal distances and those from inverse modeling based on field studies to date on BCI raises some questions about the match between our methods and those previously used. The method we propose can be generalized to any population for which spatial point pattern data are available. Additional field studies would be useful to further validate our method.