Modelling Timber Supply: Resources and Management Regimes

Timber management in developing countries is seldom based on environmental, social or economic criteria. In many developing countries, not much is known of the supply potential under either traditional centralized forest management, or under decentralized forest management which is currently being attempted as a way of promoting economic welfare. However, it is generally recognized that due to a range of problems, such as balance of payments deficits, importation of timber and timber products is not a realistic option for many developing countries in the foreseeable future. This, together with burgeoning domestic demand, makes it imperative to develop forest policies that increase domestic timber output in an optimal way. e of normative supply modelling, based on sound environmental, social and economic principles, has been advocated as a means of analysing alternative forest policies and management strategies in developing countries where there is a shortage of data, and where policy alternatives involve major changes in economic and institutional structures such as market operation or patterns of forest ownership and administration. This paper focuses on the technological assumptions and data analysis that are necessary to develop a normative timber supply model, including designation of timberland area, vegetation type, rotation lengths and output per acre for public and private lands where timber production is practised.