China: The Forecast of its Environmental Situation in the 21st Century

China will face a high rate of economic growth until 2015. The consumption of natural resources has reached an unprecedented scale and waste discharge has also come close to the capacity which the environment itself can bear. Due to the great population pressure, the effect on nature of human activities for survival and development has become increasingly more formidable. By analyzing the historical heritage and the cost of development since 1949 when a new government was founded, this article forecasts Chinaʹs environmental situation in the next century, specifically before 2030. It also develops a logically consistent conceptual framework for the evaluation of Chinaʹs ecological and environmental issues. In the assessment model, historical, meteoric and economic methods (including the estimation of short-term environmental pollution, long-term ecological degradation and social effects) have been used to increase the reliability of forecasting.