Modeling IP traffic using the batch Markovian arrival process

In this paper, we show how to utilize the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for efficient and numerical stable parameter estimation of the batch Markovian arrival process (BMAP). In fact, effective computational formulas for the E-step of the EM algorithm are presented, which utilize the well-known randomization technique and a stable calculation of Poisson jump probabilities. Moreover, we identify the BMAP as an analytically tractable model of choice for aggregated traffic modeling of IP networks. The key idea of this aggregated traffic model lies in customizing the BMAP such that different lengths of IP packets are represented by rewards of the BMAP. Using measured traffic data, a comparative study with the MMPP and the Poisson process illustrates the effectiveness of the customized BMAP for IP traffic modeling by visual inspection of sample paths over several time scales, by presenting important statistical properties as well as by investigations of queuing behavior.