A model for the seismic reliability assessment of electric power transmission systems

A comprehensive model to evaluate the seismic reliability of electric power transmission systems is presented. The model provides information on the probability of structural failure of critical equipment at the major substations, from which the corresponding probabilities of power disruption to a given service area are determined. With the proposed methodology earthquake ground motions are defined as stochastic processes, and seismic capacities of electrical equipment are determined on the basis of available test data and simple modeling, from which fragility functions of critical equipment and specific substations are developed. Probabilities of power disruption resulting from network disconnectivity and abnormal power flow are assessed through Monte Carlo simulation. As a case study, the proposed model is applied to the electric power network in San Francisco and vicinity under the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, and the probabilities of power interruption are contrasted with the actual power failures observed during that earthquake.