Relationship between probabilistic dynamics and event trees

In this paper we prove that classical event trees can be derived rigorously from the theory of Probabilistic Dynamics only if we assume setpoint transitions, i.e., transitions that depend only on algebraic combinations of instantaneous values of the process variables (setpoints). Approximate formulae are also given in the more general case where the time of actuation after a setpoint is reached is stochastic, extending the classical event tree approach. The paper also reviews the theory of Probabilistic Dynamics and shows some important simplifications that can be used under certain common situations.