Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for gas and brine migration at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: permeable shaft without panel seals

Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis, stepwise regression analysis and examination of scatterplots are used in conjunction with the BRAGFLO model in an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of gas and brine movement at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Topics investigated include (1) gas production due to corrosion of steel and microbial degradation of cellulosics, (2) gas saturation and pressure in the repository, (3) gas movement in anhydrite marker beds, and (4) gas and brine movement through a short, low permeability shaft seal to the Culebra Dolomite. Important variables identified in the analysis include initial brine saturation of the waste, stoichiometric terms for corrosion of steel and microbial degradation of cellulosics, corrosion and microbial degradation rates, porosity of the Salado Formation, transition (disturbed) zone porosity, marker bed (anhydrite) permeability, and seal permeability. Published by Elsevier Science Limited.