A probabilistic methodology for the design of radiological confinement of tokamak reactors

A methodology using probabilistic risk assessment techniques is proposed for evaluating the design of multiple confinement barriers for a fusion plant within the context of a limited allowable risk. The methodology was applied to the reference design of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). Accident sequence models were developed to determine the probability of radioactive releases from each confinement barrier. The current ITER design requirements, that set environmental radioactive release limits for individual event sequences grouped in categories by frequency, is extended to derive a limit on the plant overall risk. This avoids detailed accounting for event uncertainties in both frequency and consequence. Thus, an analytical form for a limit line is derived as a complementary cumulative frequency of permissible radioactive releases to the environment. The line can be derived using risk aversion of the designerʹs own choice. By comparing the releases from each confinement barrier against this limit line, a decision can be made about the number of barriers required to comply with the design requirements. A decision model using multi-attribute utility function theory was constructed to help the designer in choosing the type of the tokamak building while considering preferences for attributes such as construction cost, project completion time, technical feasibility and public attitude. Sensitivity analysis on some of the relevant parameters in the model was performed.