Risk Influence Analysis A methodology for identification and assessment of risk reduction strategies

This article describes Risk Influence Analysis, a methodology for the identification and assessment of risk reduction strategies in large-scale distributed systems such as transportation systems. The approach focuses on the identification of risk-influencing factors, i.e. sets of relatively stable conditions influencing the risk level. Risk reduction strategies are defined by sets of actions designed to change the state of risk-influencing factors. The expected effects of risk reduction strategies are evaluated by expert judgement supported by available data for the analysis object. y issues concerning the relevance and trustworthiness of the Risk Influence Analysis methodology are identified. The most important threats to the trustworthiness of the analysis are believed to be: (1) inadequate validity of expert judgements in estimating the effects of risk reduction strategies; and (2) incompleteness of the qualitative analysis results.