Influence of grade on the reliability of corroding pipelines

This paper focuses on a comparative analysis of the reliability associated with the evolution of corrosion between normal and high-strength pipe material. The use of high strength steel grades such as X100 and X120 for high pressure gas pipeline in the arctic is currently being considered. To achieve this objective, a time-dependent reliability analysis using variable Y/T ratios in a multiaxial finite strain analysis of thin-walled pipeline is performed. This analysis allows for the consideration of longitudinal grooves and the presence of companion axial tension and bending loads. Limit states models are developed based on suitable strain hardening models for the ultimate behavior of corroded medium and high strength pipeline material. In an application, the evolution of corrosion is modeled in pipelines of different grades that have been subjected to an internal corrosion inspection after a specified time which allows for a Bayesian updating of long-term corrosion estimates and, hence, the derivation of annual probabilities of failure as a function of time. The effect of grade and Y/T is clearly demonstrated.