The binomial failure rate common-cause model with WinBUGS

The binomial failure rate (BFR) common-cause model was introduced in the 1970s, but has not been used much recently. It turns out to be very easy to use with WinBUGS, a free, widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) program for Bayesian estimation. This fact recommends it in situations when failure data are available, especially when few failures have been observed. This article explains how to use it both for standby equipment that may fail to operate when demanded and for running equipment that may fail at random times. Example analyses are given and discussed.