Title of article :
Bayesian updating of reliability of civil infrastructure facilities based on condition-state data and fault-tree model
Author/Authors :
Ching، نويسنده , , Jianye and Leu، نويسنده , , Sou-Sen، نويسنده ,
Issue Information :
روزنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2009
Pages :
13
From page :
1962
To page :
1974
Abstract :
This paper considers a difficult but practical circumstance of civil infrastructure management—deterioration/failure data of the infrastructure system are absent while only condition-state data of its components are available. The goal is to develop a framework for estimating time-varying reliabilities of civil infrastructure facilities under such a circumstance. A novel method of analyzing time-varying condition-state data that only reports operational/non-operational status of the components is proposed to update the reliabilities of civil infrastructure facilities. The proposed method assumes that the degradation arrivals can be modeled as a Poisson process with unknown time-varying arrival rate and damage impact and that the target system can be represented as a fault-tree model. To accommodate large uncertainties, a Bayesian algorithm is proposed, and the reliability of the infrastructure system can be quickly updated based on the condition-state data. Use of the new method is demonstrated with a real-world example of hydraulic spillway gate system.
Keywords :
Life-cycle analysis , Bayesian update , Inspection , Reliability , Civil infrastructure
Journal title :
Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Serial Year :
2009
Journal title :
Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Record number :
1572604
Link To Document :
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