Predictability and trapping under conditions of globalization of agricultural trade: an application of the CDS approach

The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate how timely investments in the ecosphere promote high level stable agricultural income. It is shown that the recovery capability of the ecosphere together with strong agricultural productivity relative to the rest of the economy may be considered as control parameters of the system. They play a crucial role for agriculture to escape from a low level trap. The scenario leading to the escape is based on an economic strategy leading to a sequence of local and global bifurcations, changing the dynamical structure of the system. The effects of globalization on the systemʹs dynamics and stable sets are considered. Globalization is taken into account by means of nonautonomous impulses making selected system parameters oscillate. Necessary conditions for sustainable agriculture development are established.