Market timing and cap rotation

We examine the predictability of stock index returns (S&P500, S&P400 and Russell 2000) using the short-term interest rate as a predictor variable. Contrary to recent advances in the literature, we do find that the short-term interest rate has predictive power but over the relative performance of stock index returns (that is, when one accounts for cross-index differences), especially during the period when one of the index returns is negative. Trading strategies based on the finding prove to be profitable.