Integrated probabilistic assessment for DHC initiation, growth and leak-before-break of PHWR pressure tubes

A few hundred zirconium alloy pressure tubes in a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) serve as the nuclear fuel channel, as well as the reactor coolant pressure boundary. The pressure tubes are inspected periodically and a fitness-for-service assessment (FFSA) must be conducted if any flaw is detected in the inspection. A Canadian standard provides FFSA procedures of PHWR pressure tubes, which include probabilistic assessment for flaws considering delayed hydride cracking (DHC) and leak-before-break (LBB). In the present study, an integrated approach with detailed stepwise calculation procedures and integration methodology for probabilistic assessment of pressure tube was developed. In the first step of this approach, a probability of the DHC initiation, growth and penetration for single initial flaw is calculated. In the next step, a probability of LBB failure, which means tube rupture, for single through-wall crack (TWC) is calculated. Finally, a rupture probability for all initial flaws in a reactor can be calculated using the penetration probability for single flaw and the LBB failure probability for single TWC, as well as the predicted total number of initial flaw in the reactor.