Probabilistic model for failure initiation of reinforced concrete interior beam–column connections subjected to seismic loading

The results of previous experimental tests indicate that reinforced concrete interior beam column joints may exhibit significant strength and stiffness loss under earthquake loading, and the results of post-earthquake reconnaissance indicate that joint failure may result in structural collapse. Thus seismic evaluation and design of reinforced concrete frames requires accurate prediction of the potential for joint failure. This paper presents a binomial logit model, developed using data from 110 experimental tests, which define the probability that a reinforced concrete interior beam–column building connection, with a specific set of design parameters, will exhibit either a non-ductile joint shear failure prior to beam yielding or a ductile failure that initiates with beam yielding. The calibrated model identifies the relative importance of various design parameters in determining the connection’s response mechanism. The model can be used by an engineer designing a new connection, constructed of normal or high-strength materials, to estimate the likelihood of joint failure initiation. The model can also be used by an engineer evaluating an existing structure to estimate the likelihood of joint failure, determine the factors that most significantly affect this likelihood, and, thereby, develop a suitable and efficient retrofit strategy.