Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles influence on CO2 and water vapour emissions

The main objective of this research is to quantify the impact of introducing electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, including fuel cell on conventional fleets. The impact is estimated in terms of local pollutants, HC, CO, NOx, PM, and in terms of CO2 and water vapour global emissions. The specific fleet of Portugal, roughly 6 million light-duty vehicles (30% diesel, 70% gasoline) is considered, and the mobility indicator of the fleet, 90 thousand million p × km, is kept constant throughout the analysis. Probability density functions for energy consumption and emissions are derived for conventional, electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, in charge depleting and charge sustaining modes. The Monte Carlo method is used to obtain average distribution estimates for discounting values of “old vehicles” that are removed from the fleet, and to add average distribution estimates for the “new vehicles” entering the fleet. Considering the actual Portuguese fleet as the reference case, local pollutant emissions decrease by a factor of 10–53%, for 50% fleet replacement. A potential 23% decrease of CO2 is foreseen, and a potential 31% increase of H2O emissions is forecasted. Life cycle water vapour emissions tend to rise and are, typically, 2–4 times higher than CO2 values at the upstream stage, due to its release in the cooling towers of thermal power plants. It is interesting to note that considering 1 MJ of energy required at vehicle wheels, in an overall life cycle context, both fuel cell and electric modes have nearly twice as much H2O emissions than internal combustion vehicles. CO2 emissions tend to decrease with electric drive vehicles penetration due to the higher fleet life cycle efficiency.