Some insights on the recent spate of accidents in Indian Railways

Indian Railways (IR), the largest rail passenger carrier in the world, has experienced 11 major accidents due to derailment or collision between trains in the year 2010, leading to several human casualties and large-scale disruptions in traffic. Alarmingly, 8 of these 11 accidents have occurred within a specific geographical region known as the Indo-Gangetic plain. In order to identify the general causes of such frequent accidents, and the specific factors leading to repeated accidents in a particular region, we systematically collect and analyze data of IR traffic over the last two decades. We find that there has been an unbalanced growth in IR traffic in the Indo-Gangetic plain over the last two decades, and consequently most of the high-traffic rail-routes presently lie in this region. However, construction of new tracks and train-routes has been nominal compared to the increase in traffic, leading to frequent congestion and over-utilization of existing tracks. Modeling the traffic-flow using computer simulations, we also show that if all trains were to travel in accordance with the IR schedule, the present infrastructure would be insufficient to handle the resultant traffic-flow in some of the high-traffic routes. Hence this study reflects some of the inherent problems in the scheduling of trains and evolution of IR, and also identifies several regions where traffic is likely to exceed safe limits.