Incidence of the Bertillon and Gompertz effects on the outcome of clinical trials

The accounts of medical trials provide very detailed information about the patients’ health conditions. On the contrary, almost no vital data such as marital status or age distribution are usually given. Yet, some of these factors can have a notable impact on the overall death rate, thereby changing the outcome and conclusions of the trial. This paper focuses on two of these variables. rst is marital status; its effect on life expectancy (which will be referred to as the Bertillon effect) may double death rates in all age intervals. cond variable is the age distribution of the oldest patients. Because of the exponential nature of Gompertz’s law changes in the distribution of ages in the oldest age group can have dramatic consequences on the overall number of deaths. One should recall that the death rate at the age of 82 is 40 times higher than at the age of 37. l be seen that randomization alone can hardly take care of these problems. Appropriate remedies are easy to formulate however. First, the marital status of patients as well as the age distribution of those over 65 should be documented for both study groups. Then, thanks to these data and based on the Bertillon and Gompertz laws, it will become possible to perform appropriate corrections. orrections will notably improve the reliability and accuracy of the conclusions, especially in trials which include a large proportion of elderly subjects.