Lending sociodynamics and economic instability

We show how the dynamics of economic instability and financial crises articulated by Keynes in the General Theory and developed by Minsky as the Financial Instability Hypothesis can be formalized using Weidlich’s sociodynamics of opinion formation. The model addresses both the lending sentiment of a lender in isolation as well as the impact on that lending sentiment of the behavior of other lenders. The risk associated with lending is incorporated through a stochastic treatment of loan dynamics that treats prepayment and default as competing risks. With this model we are able to generate endogenously the rapid changes in lending opinion that attend slow changes in lending profitability and find these dynamics to be consistent with the rise and collapse of the non-Agency mortgage-backed securities market in 2007/2008. As the parameters of this model correspond to well-known phenomena in cognitive and social psychology, we can both explain why economic instability has proved robust to advances in risk measurement and suggest how policy for reducing economic instability might be formulated in an experimentally sound manner.