Extreme deconstruction supports niche conservatism driving New World bird diversity

It is expected that if environment fully establishes the borders of species geographic distribution, then richness patterns will arise simple by changing parameters on how environment affect each of the species. However, if other mechanisms (i.e., non-equilibrium of speciesʹ distributions with climate and historical contingency, shifts in adaptive peaks or biotic interactions) are driving species geographic distribution, models for species distribution and richness will not entirely match. Here we used the extreme deconstruction principle to test how niche conservatism keeping species geographic distributions in certain parts of environmental space drives richness patterns in New World birds, under tropical niche conservatism. Eight environmental variables were used to model the geographic distribution of 2790 species within 28 bird families using a GLM. Spatial patterns in richness for each of these families were also modeled as a function of these same variables using a standard OLS regression. Fit of these two types of models (mean MacFaddenʹs ρ2 for GLM and R2 of OLS) across families and the match between GLM and OLS standardized slopes within and among bird families were then compared. We found a positive and significant correlation between GLM and OLS model fit (r = 0.601; P < 0.01), indicating that when environment strongly determine richness of a family, it also explains its species geographic distributions. The match between GLM and OLS slopes is significantly correlated with familiesʹ phylogenetic root distance (r = −0.467; P = 0.012), so that more basal families tend to have a better match between environmental drivers of richness and geographic distribution models. This is expected under tropical niche conservatism model and provides an integrated explanation on how processes at a lower hierarchical level (speciesʹ geographic distribution) drive diversity patterns.