A sequential neural network model for diabetes prediction

This paper presents a neural network (NN) model to evaluate an existing Health Risk Appraisal (HRA)2Health Risk Appraisal: see Appendix A for the definition and related methods for collection of data. diabetes prediction over 3 years (1996–1998) based on a simulated learning algorithm on individual prognostic process, using the repeatedly measured HRAs of 6142 participants. proach uses a sequential multi-layered perceptron (SMLP) with backpropagation learning, and an explicit model of time-varying inputs along with the sequentially obtained prediction probability, which was obtained by embedding a multivariate logistic function for consecutive years. udy captures the time-sensitive feature of associating risk factors as predictors to the occurrence of diabetes in the corresponding period. This approach outperforms the baseline classification and regression models in terms of gains (average profit: 0.18) and sensitivity (86.04%) for a test data. sult enables a time-sensitive disease prevention and management program as a prospective effort.