Author/Authors :
Mendizabal، m نويسنده Tecnalia Research & Innovation, Parque Tecnol?gico de Bizkaia, Edificio 700, 48160 DERIO (Bizkaia), Spain , , Sep?lveda، j نويسنده Engineering School, University of he Basque Country, Gasteiz, Spain , , Torp، p نويسنده DHI, Department of Urban and River Hydraulics, Ventura Rodriguez 8, 1?D, 28008, Madrid, Spain ,
Abstract :
The scientific community agrees that climate change is one of the greatest challenges that our
society will have to face this century. Indeed, the fourth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPPC) confirms the certitude of this phenomenon and its impacts, which can range from droughts to
floods, health problems and food shortages. The principal objective of this paper is to assess the impact of
climate change on flood events and its consequences on human. This point is necessary to define and evaluate
different adaptation options. Even taking into account the medium greenhouse emission scenario, according to
the results, it is expected that extreme precipitation will increase during the twenty century, although there is
an uncertainty in the percentage due to the climatic models. It is expected an increase in peak discharge
between 14±9 and 15±8 for 3 models and for the period 2001-2040 with a return period exceeding 40 years.
For the period 2041-2080 there is more uncertainty, it is expected an increase between 12±8 and 19±10 for 2
models. According to the results, changes in flood event are expected with its associated uncertainty and new
flood zones are detected with greater hazard to people.