Usefulness of hospital admission risk stratification for predicting nonfatal acute myocardial infarction or death six months later in unstable angina pectoris

The aim of this study was to assess the clinical course of unstable angina and the prognostic value of clinical and electrocardiographic variables measured during admission in a prospective, multicenter cohort study with 6-month follow-up. The population corresponds to 4 general teaching hospitals in Catalonia, Spain. The clinical course was analyzed in 839 consecutive patients aged up to 80 years with primary unstable angina, without myocardial infarction or previous coronary bypass. The main outcome measures were cardiac mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction. Patients involved in the present analysis belonged to the Resources Used in Acute Coronary Syndromes and Delays in Treatment (RESCATE) study. Six-month overall mortality, cardiac mortality, and nonfatal myocardial infarction rates were 4.6%, 4.1%, and 3.9%, respectively. Six-month cardiac mortality or myocardial infarction rate did not differ among clinical forms of presentation. Peripheral artery disease (RR 3.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.88 to 6.50, p = 0.0001), ST-T-wave electrocardiographic changes on admission (RR 2.22, 95% CI 1.13 to 4.36, p = 0.0203), and age >65 years (RR 1.74, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.91, p = 0.0356) independently predicted 6-month cardiac mortality or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Their positive predictive values were 21%, 10%, and 11%, respectively, whereas their negative predictive value was ≥93% in all cases. Prevalences were 9%, 70%, and 41%, respectively. In this prospective study, patients with unstable angina without prior myocardial infarction have a relatively low, although not negligible, 6-month severe complication rate. Stratification risk can easily be established with clinical and electrocardiographic characteristics measured during admission. Their absence almost rules out future adverse events, while their presence does not necessarily imply bad prognosis.