Dogs on the catwalk: Modelling re-introduction and translocation of endangered wild dogs in South Africa

In South Africa, a plan was launched to manage separate sub-populations of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in several small, geographically isolated conservation areas as a single meta-population. This intensive management approach involves the re-introduction of wild dogs into suitable conservation areas and periodic translocations among them. Despite the initial failures and high costs associated with wild dog re-introductions and translocations, there is no predictive framework available to quantify which management protocol is the most efficient. We therefore developed an individual-based model of wild dog population and pack dynamics, which accounts for the wild dogs’ social complexity. The model appeared to capture the essential characteristics of a real wild dog population from Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa and to be relatively robust to parameter uncertainty, suggesting that the model is valid enough for addressing management problems. The model enabled us to quantify a critical initial number of packs (two) and individuals per pack (six) necessary for a re-introduced wild dog population to establish itself in the release area. We also found a practically feasible intervention regime at which a re-introduced wild dog population had the best chance of persistence: intermittently adding packs (at least every 6 years) and harvesting disperser groups (as often as every 4 years) for translocation to other release sites, without threatening the small source population. This study demonstrates that individual-based models can be a powerful decision-support tool in re-introduction planning and provides insight into how populations made up of social groups have dynamics, and ultimately persistence, determined by individual behaviour.