Spatial model of livestock predation by jaguar and puma in Mexico: Conservation planning

Predation on livestock is one of the main factors that cause the felids hunting, in particular for puma and jaguar this conflict with humans is severe. Most studies have assessed the predation impacts on livestock production; however there is a spatial pattern in attacks occurrence that is feasible to analyze from ecological niche modeling. The objective of this research was to generate a risk model of livestock predation by puma and jaguar in Mexico based on environmental and livestock management variables, which allows identification of zones of risk in order to define mitigation strategies at national level. We produced a geographic ensemble model of risk of predation from three algorithms for jaguar and five for puma. The variables most positively related with predation risk by jaguar were vegetative cover percentage, percentage of free grazing animals, and altitude, whereas arid vegetation has a negative influence on predation risk. In the case of puma the variables with highest contribution were livestock density, which negatively influences on the predation risk, in addition to forest and altitude, both with a positive relation. The ensemble models are an accurate approach to delineating the zones of predation risk by felids; however at a regional scale the environmental characteristics that favor predation may be different. It is recommended that researchers carry out studies for each biogeographic province that facilitate the identification of specific patterns and the definition of mitigation strategies most suitable for each one.