Changes in European forest raw material trade: Consequences of implementing the RES2020 Directive

The purpose of this paper is to assess possible changes in the European trade patterns of forest raw material arising from the implementation of the RES2020 Directive. The analysis is done by developing a partial general equilibrium model of the European trade in forest raw materials. The results suggest that the ambitious EU energy policy goal, stimulating the use of forest raw materials, will boost its trade. In the RES2020 scenario the total trade in by-products will increase with 61 percent – from 38 million to 61 million cubic metres solid volume compared to the baseline scenario. For logging residues the amount increases from 50 million to 104 million cubic metres solid volume – or by 110 percent in the RES2020 scenario compared to the baseline. Since the national goals in the RES2020 Directive are mandatory in contrast to the indicative recommendations stated in previous EU energy policies on renewables this study concludes that a more ambitious goal will inevitably affect the input competing industries. This stresses the need to thoroughly account for different aspects when evaluating the consequences of different policies.