Environmental effects on the recruitment variability of nursery species

The recruitment variability of the marine fish species Dicentrarchus labrax, Platichthys flesus and Solea solea was evaluated in the Mondego estuary (Portugal) from 2003 to 2007. The relationships between sea surface temperature, NAO index, coastal wind speed and direction, precipitation and river runoff prior to the estuarine colonization and the abundance of 0-group fish were evaluated using gamma-based Generalized Linear Models. Dicentrarchus labrax and P. flesus 0-group decreased in abundance towards the end of the study period, while S. solea, despite low abundance in 2004, increased in abundance in 2007. For D. labrax, river runoff, precipitation and east–west wind were significant; for P. flesus, precipitation, river runoff and both north–south and east–west wind components were significant parameters, while for S. solea only river runoff was important. Results were compared with recent projections for climate change scenarios, to evaluate their effects on future recruitment levels.