Impact of climate and hydrology on juvenile fish recruitment towards estuarine nursery grounds in the context of climate change

Larvae of various coastal fish undergo immigration from spawning grounds towards estuarine nurseries. Several environmental factors can have an important impact on survival at this stage making it crucial for recruitment. Generalized linear models were applied in order to investigate the relation between river drainage, sea surface temperature (SST), NAO index and the North-South wind component intensity, over the two months prior to the estuarine colonization peak, and the densities of Platichthys flesus, Dicentrarchus labrax, Diplodus vulgaris and Diplodus bellottii in the nursery grounds based on a discontinuous historical dataset (from 1978 to 2006), for the Tagus estuary. The relation between SST over the 12 months prior to the estuarine colonization peak and fish densities in the nurseries was also investigated, as it integrates the periods of spawning stock maturation, spawning and larval immigration. While SST over the prior 12 months was negatively correlated with the abundance of P. flesus, it was positively correlated with the abundance of D. bellottii. Abundance of D. vulgaris was positively correlated with SST in the two months prior to the estuarine colonization peak, while the abundance of D. labrax was positively correlated with river drainage. The relations between SST and the abundance of P. flesus, a cold-water species with declining densities, and the subtropical species D. bellottii and D. vulgaris, which are increasing in abundance, are indicative of species abundance alterations related to climate warming. Dicentrarchus labrax will probably also be affected by climate change because of lowered precipitation and consequently river drainage.