The raw and the carved: Shipping costs and ivory smuggling

The recent and rapid increase in elephant poaching has caused international alarm. A fixed-effects panel-data regression model was employed to identify possible causes of this upsurge. Ivory seizures were categorised as worked or raw. These categories were also divided into four weight classes ranging from under 10 kg to over 1000 kg. With Africa being the source of ivory and much of the poached ivory destined for Asia it was hypothesised that smugglers would respond to shipping costs. The results showed that shipping costs, especially for large shipments, were correlated to smuggling levels. Other factors include global interest rates, which motivate stockpiling by criminal organisations. Stability in Africa as measured by refugee numbers correlates to raw ivory seizures. The data describes a scenario where three forces converged to escalate poaching in the late 2000s. Raw ivory was being made increasingly available at a time from Central African range states, when criminal organisations desired larger stockpiles of tusks. The sharp decline in shopping costs gave them the means to take advantage of this.